Disclosure first: I’m part of the team behind Sentralis, a crypto portfolio risk and scenario analysis solution. Nobody at Balancer asked or paid for this, and none of it is advice.
@Marcus, on the in-kind versus stables point you asked holders about in #13 (raised by @0xDanko in #12), the useful number is how wide the band around $0.1579 is by the opening snapshot. I ran the distributable base from your gist (every position except HOPR and dust; stkAAVE priced as AAVE, sGHO as USDC) over the 252 days to 31 May 2027, at 21 September prices, which put it at $0.1584 on the same 63.07M denominator. Everything below is a model estimate under those assumptions, not a fact or a prediction.
Held in kind, the value per BAL at the snapshot lands between $0.115 and $0.285 in 90% of paths under a zero-drift model calibrated on the last year’s volatility, median $0.162. A bootstrap that resamples the last twelve months as they happened (AAVE −54%, ETH −41%) gives $0.103 to $0.206, median $0.132. The chance of opening below the $0.1487 that BIP-919 priced is 37% in the first model and 71% in the second. A repeat of October 2025 to July 2026 on this book takes it to $0.108, close to BAL’s own market price. Converting to stables now fixes the number near $0.158 plus what the stables earn, and gives up the upper half of that band. Neither choice is wrong. The vote is choosing between a fixed $0.158 and a band, and the width of the band is the thing to know.
Most of the band is one position. stkAAVE is 27% of the base and 58% of everything that is not a stablecoin. The ETH wrappers (weETH, rETH, wstETH, the WETH buffers) are another 15%, and the two blocks move together (AAVE to ETH correlation 0.75 over the last year, the wrappers at 1.0 with each other). A 50% move in AAVE alone moves the redemption value 13.5%, to $0.137. Shifting correlations to a crisis regime changes almost nothing (−0.2% on daily VaR), because the only diversification in the book is the 53% in stables.
Converting is cheap where it matters. The Safety Module cooldown reads two days on-chain today, and 19,549 stkAAVE sells in about ten days at 5% of daily volume in a stressed tape, for roughly $5k of slippage, or in under two days at 10% of normal volume. The slow parts are the small ones. The 1.23M COW needs about 19 days at the same stressed rate with slippage near 6%, and SAFE, LDO and POL together are under 3% of the base. The position that carries the risk is the cheap one to convert; the consolidation before round one is where the cost sits.
The basis is the gist’s positions and denominator, prices of 21 September, 25,000 paths per model with a fixed seed, a 365-day covariance window, and liquidity from order-book volume only (the ether.fi and Rocket Pool withdrawal queues are not modelled, so the weETH and rETH exits are not quoted). If any line of the data basis is wrong, say so and I will correct it. Happy to re-run with different assumptions at no cost.
Analysis produced with Sentralis, a crypto portfolio risk and scenario analysis solution for everyone. contact@sentralis.io